She Must Be Wonderwoman

I was wondering how long it was going to take before the media started their own vetting process of Gov. Sarah Palin. I really can't believe John McCain made this decision. I used to think he was a capable leader. I hope I am not too harsh in considering Sarah Palin laughably unprepared to be Vice-President of the United States. It's not worth even debating. What I've wondered from the first little bit I heard about her is, "what kind of strange person is this". She just gave birth to a down syndrome baby. The baby is 5 months old. She preaches the value of life and family values and is now going to leave this child at 5 months of age and run for Vice-President. Pathetic.

How He Will Improve Our Lives?

So , Obama is getting a little heat for a lack of "specifics" in his hope message . That is certainly a legitimate and fair criticism. What stood out for however me in reading the NYTimes piece was the comment made by the Governor of Tennessee, Phil Bredesen,

"Instead of giving big speeches at big stadiums, he needs to give straight-up 10-word answers to people at Wal-Mart about how he would improve their lives.”

special emphasis on the last thought--how he would improve their lives. Politicians are so unbelievable in their arrogance. Instead of worrying about improving my life for me, why not spend a couple minutes and think about ways to stop screwing up our lives. How about figuring out ways to deal with the multi-trillion dollar unfunded liabilities we face in the not too distant future?All these guys know how to do is promote themselves, their careers and spend our money-- please Governor Bredesen don't worry about "improving my live"--I'll focus on that.

On a serious note, it is exactly this expectation that some guy is going to come into office and be able to somehow magically change the world and make everything better. With those kind of expectations going in is it any wonder that we become so disappointed with those we choose to lead us?

The Bear is Back

In this case it's not the market I'm talking about. Russia is the subject and there is no doubt that they are back as a regional power and there is not much the US can do about it. George Friedman's Stratfor piece explores the ramifications of the Russia- Georgia conflict from multiple angles.

One of the first questions is how, given the massive quick Russian response to the Georgian invasion of S. Ossetia ( obviously the Russians had been prepared for this offensive for some time) could the US allow it's closest ally in the region to walk into such a trap? Was it a failure of intelligence or a misreading of Russian attitude and will? Either way-- not good. I thought Condi Rice was a Soviet expert. Maybe she is just another academic with no real world experience.

The end result is that Russia has shown the world that they are the boss in their neighborhood and that other former Soviet Republic states might now realize that the while the US is bogged down in battles in the Middle East we have nothing much to offer them other than empty words--- the old gum flapping routine. Forget about ant-missile defense sysems or additions to NATO. What I don't understand is this need for the US to continue to try to expand NATO. It would seem to be like spitting into Russia's face.

As of today Putin is stronger domestically and the Russians have reasserted their leadership of the region. Our European " friends" must wonder where their bread is buttered.They need Russia a hell of a lot more right now than they need the US ( energy supply) . How does this all play into what's coming soon -- the conflict with Iran. All in all another mess. W's inane comment about looking into Putin's eyes just speaks to his utter incompetence on the world stage. 1/20/09 can't come soon enough.

South of the Border--One More Time

Another update to two previous posts on Mexican Oil production, Revisit South of the Border and South of the Border. This is the latest out of Pemex, Mexico's Pemex says yr-end oil output to miss goal.For those in the "glass half-full school" chew on this:

"Mexico is the world's No. 6 producer and No. 10 exporter of crude oil, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, but declining crude output and exports are threatening the country's position as a top U.S. supplier."

I know CNBC's Larry Kudlow and many others would simply say, "drill,drill,drill ", but seriously is there any plan to make replace that supply--and please Senator Schumer, tapping the Strategic Reserve is not a plan right now.

Scary Stuff

The stickiness of gas prices above $4/gallon and the proximity of the July4 holiday and peak driving season has sparked a plethora of nonsense from the usual suspects. The clowns in Washington are advocating a policy of drill,drill drill, offering that as a way to gain energy independence. After all, there is so much untapped oil right here in the USA. Combine that lunacy with the usual media blowhards that are hammering "speculators" and the Saudi's and pretty soon it's easy to miss an important story. I found the EIA Net Export #'s inside of a post by Westexas, on TheOildrum.com. Take a look. ( click on chart for sharper image)






Here's the deal. What we are seeing is a net decline in exports over the past couple years. I'm sure the circumstances are different in each particular country, ranging from more domestic use ( maybe Iran and Venezuela) to depletion ala Norway and Mexico. It's interesting that Russia is at the top of the list as far as net positive goes. I see a big comeback for the Russian bear. What is not getting factored into any mainstream conversation is that this decline in net exports might not be a one off event. There is a school of thought that says that as many of these export countries see more and more oil revenue, their societies will grow economically and they will end up using more and more of their crude oil production domestically. If that ends up being the case we here in the US are really up the creek.

The Long Emergency-- American Style

In his book The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler paints a picture of what he sees as our societal future post peak-oil. One of his themes is the potential unravelling of the social structure as the have-nots are priced out the gasoline market and now truly face a future on the economic fringes. He believes mob violence is a possibility.

It's funny but because Kunstler offers this vision he is sometimes criticized as an alarmist and a wacko. Well, it was with interest that I read this story this morning in the NY Times Rural U.S. Takes Worst Hit as Gas Tops $4 Average :

"Here in the Mississippi Delta, some farm workers are borrowing money from their bosses so they can fill their tanks and get to work. Some are switching jobs for shorter commutes.
People are giving up meat so they can buy fuel. Gasoline theft is rising. And drivers are running out of gas more often, leaving their cars by the side of the road until they can scrape together gas money.
The disparity between rural America and the rest of the country is a matter of simple home economics. Nationwide, Americans are now spending about 4 percent of their take-home income on gasoline. By contrast, in some counties in the Mississippi Delta, that figure has surpassed 13 percent.
As a result, gasoline expenses are rivaling what families spend on food and housing."

I don't want to be unsympathetic to the economic pain being felt right now, but this is happening at $4 a gallon. What's the story at $5 or $6?

What More Can You Say?

The constant chatter about Iran and a potential war there has not abated much over the past month or so. I stumbled across this today while browsing Juan Cole's site. It leaves me speechless. Here's a takeaway:
( Thanks to Jason Lepold for great work on this)

During a trip to the Middle East in March 1996, Vice President Dick Cheney told a group of mostly U.S. businessmen that Congress should ease sanctions in Iran and Libya to foster better relationships, a statement that, in hindsight, is completely hypocritical considering the Bush administration’s foreign policy.
“Let me make a generalized statement about a trend I see in the U.S. Congress that I find disturbing, that applies not only with respect to the Iranian situation but a number of others as well,” Cheney said. “I think we Americans sometimes make mistakes . . . There seems to be an assumption that somehow we know what’s best for everybody else and that we are going to use our economic clout to get everybody else to live the way we would like.”
Cheney was the chief executive of Halliburton Corporation at the time he uttered those words. It was Cheney who directed Halliburton toward aggressive business dealings with Iran—in violation of U.S. law—in the mid-1990s, which continued through 2005 and is the reason Iran has the capability to enrich weapons-grade uranium.
It was Halliburton’s secret sale of centrifuges to Iran that helped get the uranium enrichment program off the ground, according to a three-year investigation that includes interviews conducted with more than a dozen current and former Halliburton employees.